Hiring Physicians for 2023 will undoubtedly look differently than it has in years past and will certainly provide its own unique challenges and opportunities throughout the year. Coming off of several years that challenged and stressed our healthcare system like never before, 2023 will be a year of rebuilding and re-examining much of how our healthcare system has operated in the past including how we recruit and retain highly talented physicians and advanced practice providers.
Here we cover multiple factors that will affect the way physician hiring will look in 2023 and in the years to come. We examine current and upcoming physician specialty census data in comparison to the demands of the current population, and also provide key analysis and how healthcare organizations can meet the demands of providing quality physicians and patient care in the foreseeable future.
Physician Hiring Landscape
According to the 2020 Physician Specialty Data Report from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the U.S. has more than 938,000 total active physicians with more than 816,000 that are directly involved in patient care. Of the active physicians, almost a third are concentrated in just three specialties, internal medicine, family medicine/general practice, and pediatrics.
In 2019, 54% of practicing physicians worked in a physician owned practice while in 2018 34.7% of doctors worked for a hospital or a practice partly owned by a hospital which was up from 29% in 2012.
Looking now at physician disbursement across the county, the states with the most active physicians are California, New York, and Texas leading with Florida and Pennsylvania rounding out the top five in 2020.
As found across the United States, there are a large number of physicians at or nearing the age of retirement. Currently there are 161,628 licensed physicians between the ages of 65 and 75. This represents 19.8% of the physician workforce.
Along with those who are nearing the age of retirement data shows 8% of doctors have decided to retire early and another 4% plan to retire in the next year.
Set to replace those retiring physicians, we found 27,216 doctors that were transitioning out of either a residency or a fellowship in 2019 and there were 22,239 students admitted to medical schools in 2020.
The Aging Population
In estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation, US residents age 65 and older increased from 12.6% of the total population in 2008 to 16.5% in 2020. However, It is important to take into consideration that these numbers can vary widely depending on geography. More than 1 in 5 older Americans live in rural areas and many of these are concentrated in states where more than half of their older population are in rural areas. 17.5% of the rural population in the US is 65 or older, compared to only 13.8% in urban areas. This gap is projected to widen as the years go by, reaching 25% in 2040.
So while the shortage of physicians across the country remains a struggle, the current strain on an already overworked healthcare system will only continue to rise as an increasing number of patients require additional care. And, many of these patients live in areas with diminished access to care. Physician recruitment and retention in rural areas becomes even more critical in light of these numbers.
Physician Hiring Analysis
Having sourced physicians across the country throughout our more than 20 years in the industry, we have seen a number of different scenarios and market conditions come into play over the years. While the U.S. continues to be in the top countries in the world when it comes to population growth both in percentage growth and overall total population, the number of practicing physicians both, primary care and physicians practicing in a specialty, is not increasing at the same pace.
While metropolitan areas as well as coastal communities will continue to add value in recruiting and hiring high quality physicians, intrastate competition among healthcare groups will remain high and successful efforts will come to those willing and able to provide top of the line compensation, benefits, and quality of life for their physicians.
Physician burnout continues to be a persistent issue in the healthcare industry, especially for providers who have been directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the increased workload that presented itself in 2020. These physicians may very well be seeking roles with reduced hours, limited to no on-call responsibilities or outpatient only opportunities.
Looking Forward
The United States continues to see population growth among the top countries in the world with an increasing population over the age of 65 that presents unique and resource-intensive challenges to a currently over-burdened system. By creating flexible and creative ways to attract and utilize both the current physicians throughout the state, as well as those looking to relocate for a fresh start after a world-wide pandemic, healthcare organizations have a unique opportunity to offer physicians a wide variety of patient care options as well as lifestyles to suit.
Rural facilities may want to focus on recruiting physicians looking for a break from the stress that was associated with the past year or those who may be looking for a slower pace nearing the end of their career. On the other hand, organizations looking to fill positions in urban areas are suited to attracting the permanent placements in the specialties that will be needed both now and in the future. The competition for quality providers will be stiff. The need for strategic planning in the physician workforce cannot be understated.